Who’s Really Buying in Greater Sacramento in 2025? 🏡 Bay Area vs Local Moves (County-by-County Breakdown)

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If you’ve lived in the Greater Sacramento area for any amount of time, you’ve probably heard someone say, “Everyone moving here is from the Bay Area — and that’s why prices keep going up.” But is that still true in 2025? 🤔 I decided to dig into the data to find out. Using the latest numbers from U-Haul’s 2025 Migration Report, Redfin, the National Association of Realtors, local title companies, and community sources like OnePlacer and The Sacramento Bee, I wanted to see who’s really buying across Sacramento, Placer, and El Dorado Counties — and what these trends mean as we move into 2026.

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Source: Pexels

Let’s start with a quick market snapshot. Across the region, home prices are holding steady while inventory continues to shift. In Sacramento County, the median home price sits around $539,000, and inventory has climbed roughly 17% compared to last year. Over in Placer County, the median price is higher — about $653,000 — but inventory has actually dropped nearly 6%, which is tightening supply and keeping demand strong. In El Dorado County, prices average around $675,000, with inventory ticking up by about 5% from 2024. What we’re seeing is that buyers finally have more choices than they did a year ago, but the good homes — those priced right, in great condition, and in desirable areas — are still moving quickly. 💨 On the flip side, homes that are overpriced or need a lot of work are sitting longer and often facing steep price corrections.

So, who’s actually moving here? According to U-Haul’s data, California isn’t one of the top inbound states right now, but the Sacramento region continues to attract people from nearby Western states like Oregon, Nevada, Washington, Arizona, Idaho, and Texas, as well as other parts of California, especially the Bay Area, Los Angeles, and San Diego. 📦 Redfin’s 2025 data tells a similar story: about two-thirds of people shopping for homes in the Sacramento area already live here locally, while roughly one-third are searching from outside the region — and the majority of those outsiders are from Bay Area ZIP codes. So yes, Bay Area buyers are still playing a big role, but locals remain the heartbeat of our market. ❤️


Source: Pexels

In Sacramento County, most of the movement is local. About 85–90% of buyers already live here — families upsizing, downsizing, or finally buying after renting. Only a small portion, about 10–15%, come from outside the area, and those are usually Bay Area investors or a small number of out-of-state buyers. This means Sacramento’s strength lies in what we call “local mobility.” Even though inventory is up, homes under the $550K mark continue to sell fast, especially in neighborhoods close to good schools and jobs.

Now, Placer County tells a different story. This is what I like to call our “growth magnet.” Roughly 70–80% of buyers here are local or regional, while 20–30% are relocating from outside the area — and almost all of those are coming straight from the Bay Area. 🌉 Cities like Roseville, Rocklin, and Lincoln remain among the fastest-growing communities in California, thanks to their newer homes, great schools, cleaner commutes, and family-friendly atmosphere. With inventory down nearly 6%, the demand here still outweighs supply. Even with prices above $650,000, buyers are jumping in because they see the long-term value and quality of life that Placer offers.

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Source: Pexels

Moving farther east, El Dorado County is where lifestyle meets land. 🌲 If you’ve ever driven through El Dorado Hills or Rescue, you’ve probably noticed larger lots, sweeping views, and a sense of peace that’s hard to find elsewhere. Here, about 65–75% of buyers are locals, while 25–35% come from outside the area — mostly Bay Area or Sacramento County residents looking for more space and privacy. Inventory is up about 5%, giving buyers a little more flexibility. People are drawn here for the scenery, access to Lake Tahoe, and the ability to own more land without sacrificing convenience.

So, what does this all mean for sellers? 💰 The great news is that demand across our region is diverse. In Sacramento County, most of your buyers will be locals who value familiarity — they’re looking for neighborhoods close to schools, parks, and city centers. In Placer County, sellers can expect more Bay Area relocators, so marketing should highlight lifestyle, schools, and commute options. And in El Dorado County, the focus should be on the luxury of space — think lifestyle videos that capture the land, the views, and that sense of serenity people crave. The simple formula still holds true: when your home is priced right and in great shape, it moves. Miss the mark on either, and buyers will pass you by.

Also if you're  🚚 Thinking of Moving to Sacramento or want to know more about the area?

Grab my Free Greater Sacramento Relocation Information Guide — packed with insider tips, school rankings, commute maps, and neighborhood insights:
👉 Download it here

For buyers, knowing your competition is key. 🧭 Homes under $600K are still dominated by local families and first-time buyers, while the $700K–$900K range attracts Bay Area relocators and local move-up buyers looking for something bigger. If you’re shopping new construction in places like Lincoln, West Roseville, or Rancho Cordova, keep an eye on Mello-Roos and HOA costs — they can impact your monthly payment more than you’d expect. Every week, I look at these numbers and send my clients live updates on where competition is heating up, so if you want to know what to expect before you make an offer, just shoot me a quick text and I’ll send you the latest data. 📲


Source: Pexels

Now let’s bust a few myths. 🚫 First, the idea that out-of-state buyers are flooding our market just isn’t true. They make up maybe 5% of the total buyer pool. Second, the claim that the “Bay Area wave” has ended is also false. It’s not as intense as it was during the pandemic boom, but as long as the median Bay Area home price stays around $1.2 million, Sacramento, Placer, and El Dorado will remain attractive alternatives. Lastly, when people say the market is unpredictable — not really. The formula is simple: when mortgage rates go down, inventory goes down, and competition heats up. When rates rise, inventory builds and prices soften. Looking ahead to 2026, most experts expect prices to stay relatively flat or slightly up unless there’s a major global shift or rate shock.

So what’s the bottom line? 🏁 Sacramento County continues to be driven by locals — stable, steady, and affordable compared to surrounding markets. Placer County remains our growth hub, balancing local demand with steady Bay Area migration. And El Dorado County keeps attracting those seeking space, views, and lifestyle upgrades. Overall, locals still drive this market, but Bay Area and nearby state migration adds consistent momentum that keeps our region strong. 🌟

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Jake DaRosa | The DaRosa Team, Powered by PLACE
Helping families buy and sell across Placer, El Dorado, and Sacramento Counties.